A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
